How's the Market?
Seasonal Trends & Macro Trends
Seasonal Trends & Macro Trends
Whether the market is going up or down on a macro level, typically you'll find a low in January (or close to it) & a high in June (or close to it) on an annual basis.
Median Sales Price
Lows in January & Highs in June
This # has been trending up since 2012, but slowed down substantially in mid-2023 due to rising interest rates.
Price Per Square Feet
Lows in January & Highs in June
This # has been trending up since 2012, but slowed down substantially in mid-2023 due to rising interest rates.
Closed Sales
Lows in January & Highs in June
This # has been trending up since 2012, but slowed down substantially in mid-2023 due to rising interest rates.
Average Percent of List Price Received
Lows in January & Highs in June
This # has been trending up since 2012, but came back down to closer to 100% in mid-2023 due to rising interest rates.
Median Days on Market
Lows in June & Highs in January
This # has been trending down since 2012, but slowed down substantially in mid-2023 due to rising interest rates.
Percent of Distressed Units
Lows in June & Highs in January
This # has been trending down since 2012, but slowed down substantially in part due to Covid-19 funding, we buy houses style investors soliciting pre-foreclosures, many buyers locking in low rates by purchase or refi, low unemployment, & high equity levels.
Number of Active Units
Lows in December-February & Highs in June-August
This # was trending down since 2015, but slowed down substantially in 2022 due to much higher rates than many existing homes have.
Projections vary widely regarding where the market is going. With Redfin's projections of SE VA, only 2 cities are reviewed, Virginia Beach & Richmond. Keep in mind that anything below 50% means that it's more likely that there won't be one vs there being one, and the closer to 50%, the less certain those pulling the data are. (%s from 11/15/22)
According to an October 3rd article by Money.com, here are some of the predictions:
1. Mark Zandi
Chief economist at Moody’s Analytics
"National house prices, as measured by repeat sales indices, are on track to fall as much as 10% peak-to-trough, with the bottom likely by the end of next year... All this assumes there will not be a recession. If the economy does suffer a downturn with a meaningful increase in unemployment, the peak-to-trough house price declines will be closer to 15%."
2. Erin Sykes
"Chief economist at real estate brokerage Nest Seekers
"Home prices will decline, but there will be significant variation depending on the market. Some areas of the country could see double-digit price declines."
3. Skylar Olsen
Chief economist at Zillow
"Zillow predicts home values will rise by 1.2% through August 2023."
4. Odeta Kushi
"Deputy chief economist at title company First American
Nationally, annual house price growth will decelerate but remain positive. In other words, nationally, while month-over-month house prices may decline, annual house price declines are not expected."
5.
Nadia Evangelou
"Senior economist & director of forecasting at the National Association of Realtors
What she expects: Home prices will continue to decelerate in 2023. We expect home price growth to slow to a rate of 5% by the end of 2022. (Compared to prices at the end of 2021)"